Does the clock matter?
Every pump.fun graduation with a standard seed (≥67 WSOL) from our archive, banded by the UTC hour it graduated. “Doubled” means the token peaked at least 2× its graduation price inside our tracking window.
Measured 09 Oct 2026 · 52,273 graduations over 129 days · rebuilt daily63%
double before 08 UTC
53%
double at 16–20 UTC
58%
base rate, all hours
| Graduated | n | Doubled | Ended positive | Median peak | Early / late half |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00–04 UTC | 9,200 | 62.0% | 46.6% | +295% | 57.2% / 66.6% |
| 04–08 UTC | 7,442 | 62.8% | 49.8% | +330% | 59.7% / 65.6% |
| 08–12 UTC | 6,443 | 59.9% | 50.2% | +265% | 57.7% / 61.9% |
| 12–16 UTC | 8,979 | 59.4% | 47.5% | +226% | 54.0% / 65.4% |
| 16–20 UTC | 10,549 | 53.0% | 40.3% | +127% | 44.6% / 61.9% |
| 20–24 UTC | 9,660 | 53.2% | 39.1% | +127% | 47.8% / 58.5% |
The last column splits the archive into its first and second halves: the ordering holds in both, which is what separates a pattern from a fluke. The mechanism is plausible but unproven — launches during US afternoon hours compete with the day’s heaviest flow for the same capital.
What this is not. Better odds of a peak are not odds of profit — the median graduation still ends far below its peak, and most end negative at every hour. This shifts a base rate; it does not make a bad trade good. Costs do not care what time it is: fixed costs still take ~0.0085 SOL a round trip.