Weekend Watch: can tokenized stocks call Monday’s open?
Wall Street shuts for the weekend; tokenized stocks keep trading on crypto exchanges. Every Sunday at 23:35 UTC, before US trading restarts, we write down what the tokens on every exchange we read say each stock is worth, and timestamp it in Bitcoin so it cannot be changed afterwards. On Monday we score it against the real share, next to the obvious guess: Friday’s last price.
2 weekends scored · the next score: Monday 19 Oct, around 15:00 UTC
Sat 10 – Sun 11 Oct: tokens closer than Friday’s last price for 5 of 19 stocks
Each stock’s tokens on Sunday at 23:35 UTC, before US trading restarted, against the real share at Monday’s open (9:30 New York), next to Friday’s last price.
| Stock | Tokens on Sundayagainst Friday | Monday’s openagainst Friday | Tokens missed by | Friday’s price missed by | Exchangesclosest to furthest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYS&P 500 ETF | +0.32% | +0.07% | 0.25%Friday was closer | 0.07% | Bitget 0.04%to Bitrue 0.40% |
| QQQNasdaq-100 ETF | +0.41% | −0.48% | 0.89%Friday was closer | 0.48% | WEEX 0.66%to LBank 0.92% |
| NVDANvidia | +0.82% | −0.39% | 1.22%Friday was closer | 0.39% | BingX 1.01%to WEEX 1.40% |
| TSLATesla | +0.49% | −0.75% | 1.25%Friday was closer | 0.76% | Bitget 1.12%to WEEX 1.36% |
| AAPLApple | +0.23% | +1.65% | 1.40%closer than Friday | 1.62% | WEEX 1.31%to MEXC 1.59% |
| GOOGLAlphabet | +0.25% | +0.28% | 0.03%closer than Friday | 0.28% | Bybit 0.01%to Bitget 0.22% |
| METAMeta | +0.71% | +2.22% | 1.48%closer than Friday | 2.17% | Bybit 1.43%to WEEX 1.80% |
| CRCLCircle | +2.02% | −1.28% | 3.34%Friday was closer | 1.30% | Bitget 3.20%to MEXC 3.39% |
| MSTRStrategy | +1.47% | +0.27% | 1.20%Friday was closer | 0.26% | WEEX 0.15%to KuCoin 1.28% |
| COINCoinbase | +1.58% | −0.37% | 1.96%Friday was closer | 0.37% | WEEX 1.08%to Phemex 2.04% |
| SPCXSpaceX | +0.97% | −0.59% | 1.56%Friday was closer | 0.59% | WEEX 1.10%to Bitrue 2.27% |
| AMZNAmazon | +0.20% | 0.00% | 0.20%Friday was closer | 0.00% | WEEX 0.05%to Toobit 0.26% |
| MSFTMicrosoft | +0.17% | +0.66% | 0.48%closer than Friday | 0.65% | WEEX 0.37%to Bitrue 0.62% |
| AVGOBroadcom | +0.73% | −1.01% | 1.76%Friday was closer | 1.02% | WEEX 1.15%to Bitrue 1.92% |
| PLTRPalantir | +1.07% | −0.01% | 1.08%Friday was closer | 0.01% | WEEX 0.18%to Bitrue 1.11% |
| AMDAMD | +0.76% | −2.34% | 3.17%Friday was closer | 2.39% | WEEX 2.33%to Bitrue 3.37% |
| SLVSilver ETF | −0.43% | −0.70% | 0.28%closer than Friday | 0.70% | Gate 0.27%to LBank 0.88% |
| INTCIntel | +1.44% | −2.28% | 3.81%Friday was closer | 2.33% | WEEX 2.67%to MEXC 4.05% |
| MRVLMarvell | +1.08% | −1.19% | 2.30%Friday was closer | 1.21% | WEEX 0.80%to MEXC 2.47% |
A miss is the distance from the real share’s price at the open, in percent. Plus means above Friday’s last price, minus below. “Tokens” is the median across every exchange; the last column is each exchange’s own price.
Not scored this weekend: Robinhood (HOOD). Its tokens were written down with the others, but our source for real-share prices does not cover it yet, so there is no price to score them against.
S&P 500 ETF: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.09% and Friday’s price 0.23% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Nasdaq-100 ETF: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.01% and Friday’s price 0.42% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Tesla: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.04% and Friday’s price 0.53% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Circle: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.06% and Friday’s price 1.92% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Strategy: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.09% and Friday’s price 1.54% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Coinbase: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.18% and Friday’s price 1.38% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
SpaceX: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.10% and Friday’s price 0.86% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Amazon: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.12% and Friday’s price 0.32% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Broadcom: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.15% and Friday’s price 0.58% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Palantir: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.43% and Friday’s price 0.64% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
AMD: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.21% and Friday’s price 0.55% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Intel: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.48% and Friday’s price 0.94% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
Marvell: when trading restarted, the tokens were within 0.28% and Friday’s price 0.79% off. The move came after the restart, before Monday’s open.
When trading restarted (Sunday 8 pm New York, overnight trading), the tokens were closer for 17 of 19 stocks; their median miss was 0.15%, Friday’s last price’s 0.53%.
Exchange by exchange
Each exchange’s own token prices at the snapshot against the real share at Monday’s open. The last column compares like with like: its miss minus the miss of all tokens together, on the same stocks (minus means closer).
| Exchange | Stocks | Closer than Friday | Typical miss | Against all tokenssame stocks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEEX | 19 | 8 of 19 | 1.08% | −0.15% |
| Bitget | 19 | 6 of 19 | 1.12% | −0.11% |
| Toobit | 11 | 3 of 11 | 1.19% | −0.01% |
| OKX | 18 | 4 of 18 | 1.35% | −0.01% |
| Phemex | 17 | 5 of 17 | 1.16% | 0.00% |
| BingX | 18 | 5 of 18 | 1.24% | 0.00% |
| Binance | 18 | 4 of 18 | 1.30% | 0.00% |
| Gate | 17 | 5 of 17 | 1.23% | 0.00% |
| Bybit | 9 | 3 of 9 | 1.40% | 0.00% |
| LBank | 19 | 4 of 19 | 1.28% | +0.01% |
| KuCoin | 5 | 1 of 5 | 1.46% | +0.02% |
| XT | 5 | 2 of 5 | 1.28% | +0.02% |
| Bitrue | 16 | 5 of 16 | 1.19% | +0.03% |
| MEXC | 19 | 4 of 19 | 1.36% | +0.04% |
Every exchange, every stock: misses at Monday’s open
| Exchange | SPY | QQQ | NVDA | TSLA | AAPL | GOOGL | META | CRCL | MSTR | COIN | SPCX | AMZN | MSFT | AVGO | PLTR | AMD | SLV | INTC | MRVL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEEX | 0.26%* | 0.66%* | 1.40%* | 1.36%* | 1.31% | 0.14% | 1.80% | 3.36%* | 0.15% | 1.08%* | 1.10%* | 0.05%* | 0.37% | 1.15%* | 0.18%* | 2.33% | 0.59% | 2.67%* | 0.80% |
| Bitget | 0.04% | 0.74%* | 1.11%* | 1.12%* | 1.35% | 0.22% | 1.68% | 3.20%* | 0.86%* | 1.83%* | 1.51%* | 0.05%* | 0.54% | 1.67%* | 1.08%* | 3.16%* | 0.59% | 3.67%* | 1.83%* |
| Toobit | – | 0.89%* | 1.19%* | 1.17%* | 1.46% | – | 1.47% | 3.25%* | 1.05%* | 1.94%* | 1.57%* | 0.26%* | – | – | – | – | 0.28% | – | – |
| OKX | 0.21%* | 0.85%* | 1.20%* | 1.22%* | 1.45% | 0.07% | 1.51% | 3.33%* | 1.25%* | 1.97%* | 1.56%* | 0.17%* | 0.48% | 1.86%* | 1.06%* | 3.27%* | – | 3.80%* | 2.26%* |
| Phemex | 0.15%* | 0.89%* | 1.16%* | 1.17%* | 1.41% | 0.06% | 1.51% | 3.32%* | 1.12%* | 2.04%* | 1.56%* | 0.19%* | 0.58% | 1.73%* | 1.08%* | 3.16%* | 0.28% | – | – |
| BingX | 0.21%* | 0.82%* | 1.01%* | 1.26%* | 1.42% | 0.03% | 1.44% | 3.32%* | 1.21%* | 1.98%* | 1.50%* | 0.19%* | 0.58% | 1.74%* | 1.08%* | – | 0.28% | 3.84%* | 2.31%* |
| Binance | 0.20%* | 0.87%* | 1.25%* | 1.27%* | 1.32% | 0.01% | 1.45% | 3.35%* | 1.20%* | 1.96%* | 1.51%* | 0.24%* | 0.45% | 1.76%* | 1.10%* | 3.33%* | – | 3.81%* | 2.29%* |
| Gate | 0.21%* | 0.91%* | 1.22%* | 1.23%* | 1.41% | 0.02% | 1.46% | 3.34%* | 1.24%* | 2.01%* | 1.58%* | 0.23%* | 0.59% | 1.65%* | 1.06%* | 3.17%* | 0.27% | – | – |
| Bybit | – | – | 1.22%* | 1.25%* | 1.40% | 0.01% | 1.43% | 3.36%* | – | 1.99%* | 1.57%* | 0.24%* | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| LBank | 0.25%* | 0.92%* | 1.20%* | 1.28%* | 1.40% | 0.04% | 1.59% | 3.34%* | 1.23%* | 1.38%* | 1.57%* | 0.21%* | 0.39% | 1.79%* | 1.09%* | 3.21%* | 0.88%* | 3.90%* | 2.44%* |
| KuCoin | – | – | – | 1.25%* | 1.46% | – | – | 3.36%* | 1.28%* | – | 1.56%* | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| XT | – | – | 1.24%* | 1.28%* | 1.40% | 0.01% | – | – | – | 2.00%* | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Bitrue | 0.40%* | 0.89%* | 1.24%* | 1.30%* | 1.35% | 0.03% | 1.48% | 3.33%* | 1.14%* | – | 2.27%* | 0.21%* | 0.62% | 1.92%* | 1.11%* | 3.37%* | 0.46% | – | – |
| MEXC | 0.28%* | 0.90%* | 1.31%* | 1.36%* | 1.59% | 0.09% | 1.53% | 3.39%* | 1.26%* | 1.65%* | 1.38%* | 0.22%* | 0.40% | 1.78%* | 0.69%* | 2.74%* | 0.77%* | 4.05%* | 2.47%* |
| All tokens | 0.25% | 0.89% | 1.22% | 1.25% | 1.40% | 0.03% | 1.48% | 3.34% | 1.20% | 1.96% | 1.56% | 0.20% | 0.48% | 1.76% | 1.08% | 3.17% | 0.28% | 3.81% | 2.30% |
| Friday’s price | 0.07% | 0.48% | 0.39% | 0.76% | 1.62% | 0.28% | 2.17% | 1.30% | 0.26% | 0.37% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.65% | 1.02% | 0.01% | 2.39% | 0.70% | 2.33% | 1.21% |
* Friday’s last price was at least as close. Each cell is the exchange’s own price for that stock (the middle of its markets, if it has two).
One weekend: a single cell can flip next weekend, and an exchange that lists only the more volatile stocks has bigger misses whatever it does.
The proof that the guess came first
- Snapshot written Sun 11 Oct 2026, 23:35:02 UTC (7:35 pm New York), 25 minutes before US trading restarted: 320 markets on 14 exchanges.
- Its fingerprint (SHA-256):
91b0c24b78c98f51ae6d195eb9c8ee2baa0ed7712b0174eaad2544c57b08d260 - Timestamped with OpenTimestamps: the fingerprint is in Bitcoin block 971,005, mined Sun 11 Oct, 23:53 UTC, 7 minutes before trading restarted. We checked the proof against the block’s header (block hash
0000000000000000000042601b4858534f518c3fc526a6f1544a728d92f8ead4). - The proof file: weekend-2026-10-11.json.ots. With the fingerprint above, anyone can check it with the OpenTimestamps tools (opentimestamps.org).
- The snapshot also holds third-party quotes that we do not republish, so the file itself is not posted. The tokens’ prices and Friday’s last price on this page are taken from it.
Every weekend so far
| Weekend | Tokens closerthan Friday | Median misstokens | Median missFriday | Right direction | Bitcoin block |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 – Sun 11 Oct 2026 | 5 of 19 | 1.25% | 0.65% | 7 of 17 | 971,005 |
| Sat 3 – Sun 4 Oct 2026 | 9 of 10 | 0.39% | 0.85% | 9 of 10 | 969,921 |
Every scored weekend stays here, including the ones where Friday’s last price wins.
How we score
- The tokens’ price: for each stock, the middle of the best buy and sell price in every market we read on the exchanges, converted to real shares with each issuer’s ratio; the median of all of them, from the last order books before the snapshot (we read them every 15 minutes).
- Friday’s last price: the real share’s price at the end of Friday’s after-hours trading (8 pm New York).
- The real price at Monday’s open: the median from 9:31 to 9:36 New York; at the restart, from 8:00 to 8:15 pm New York on Sunday. The real share’s quotes come from Robinhood’s public market data; we publish only figures derived from them.
- A miss is the distance between a guess and the real price at that moment, in percent of the real price. Right direction counts the stocks that moved more than 0.05% from Friday’s last price to the open.
- Which stocks: 10 up to the weekend of 3–4 October; 20 from the weekend of 10–11 October. A stock is scored only if we have its real-share price; for HOOD we don’t yet.
- One weekend is a small sample. We score every weekend and keep every result. Measurement, not advice.
The score every Monday
We post each weekend’s score on Monday afternoon (UTC) on X and Telegram. The order books behind it, every exchange every 15 minutes, weekends included, are in the data files.
Questions or a correction? Write to data@fillable.ai.