What happens after a token graduates

Every pump.fun token that reached an open market since 1 June, priced from the moment it graduated. 74,218 of the 74,270 graduated so far have a full price path.

Updated just now · 2026-10-09 · 8,124 tokens in the last seven days

74,270

tokens graduated since 1 June

+86%

median peak after graduation

last 7 days: +91% (-3.8pp since 10-08)

48%

doubled at some point

last 7 days: 49% (-0.4pp since 10-08)

65%

ended below entry

last 7 days: 71% (+0.5pp since 10-08)

The shape of a graduation

Both lines are medians across every tracked token. Red is the price at that moment; green is the best price seen so far. The median token is up +79% at its best and -78% by the end of the window. The gap is the entire opportunity, and it closes in minutes.

How far they run

Every token by the highest price it reached after graduating. Roughly one in five never trades above its graduation price; one in five runs more than ten times.

Week by week

Recent weeks move a lot — the median peak has ranged from +23% to +96% since June. In the last seven days: median peak +91%, 49% doubled, 71% ended below entry.

The same pattern the calls data shows. Our April study of Telegram calls found the pop is real and evaporates. This is a completely different dataset, collected a different way, four months later — and it says the same thing: the median token peaks well above entry and finishes far below it. Whatever edge exists in this market is in the exit, not the entry.

And the cost side still applies: on a 0.02 SOL trade, tips and account rent alone ate about 42 percent of the trade before any bot fee. See The League for what each bot charges — at these trade sizes the fee choice is worth more than most of the alpha.

Method

A token graduates when it leaves the pump.fun bonding curve for an open market. From that moment we poll its price roughly every thirty seconds for about fifteen minutes and record the path. Peak is the highest price observed after graduation; final is the price at the end of the window. Both are measured against the graduation price, so a token that only ever falls has a negative peak — that is what "never green" means here.

What this does not tell you: anything beyond the first fifteen minutes, whether you could actually be filled at these prices, or how much slippage a real order would take. Tokens still being tracked are excluded until their window closes.